Whole Whale Predicts: Giving will surpass $3.5 Billion on December 3rd, 2024
Based on our analysis that incorporates an adjusted linear regression, trends in Google Search terms around “Giving Tuesday,” and national giving trends, we predict that $3.5 Billion will be raised on Giving Tuesday December 3rd, 2024. This will be a 11% or ~$470 million increase over 2023’s record-breaking $3.1B.
Google Trends of search for past 5 years of “GivingTuesday”
This year is less predictable due to a number of factors that we see impacting this macro-giving. Some of the negative indicators that we think could slow giving:
- National US election pulling attention and funds leading up to the day
- Inflation concerns with rising rates cooling the economy.
- A hangover from reduced giving in 2023 continues to depress giving this year
Some of the positive indicators that may help Giving Tuesday results:
- S&P 500 is up +20% YTD
- DAFs held about $230 billion at the beginning of the year
- Low unemployment traditionally maps to increased giving.
- Consumer spending is increasing YoY
- New avenues of donations from cryptocurrency platforms like The Giving Block
What Happened in 2023?
“$3.12 Billion was raised on Giving Tuesday 2023, with a 10% decline in participation, sadly missing our expectations of $3.45B”
– George Weiner, Whole Whale
The GivingTuesday Data Commons estimated on Nov 30th that giving in the United States alone on November 28th (Giving Tuesday) totaled $3.1 billion, a modest increase of 0.6% from 2022.
34 million adults in the U.S. participated in GivingTuesday in some way (a 10% decrease from 2022, mirroring trends in the nonprofit sector over the past year), contributing critical support to causes, communities, and non-profit organizations as they kick off the giving season this year.
“We are concerned to see a decline in participation in line with giving trends from the past year. GivingTuesday’s mission is to inspire generosity among as many people as possible, not just raise as many dollars as possible. Generosity has such important correlations with civic participation, community cohesion, and well-being.”
Asha Curran, GivingTuesday’s Chief Executive Officer
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Giving Tuesday Facts and Statistics
Here is our breakdown of relevant stats and facts by year for Giving Tuesday, along with general giving trends and Giving Tuesday’s place in the larger Thanksgiving shopping headspace.
Who Knows About Giving Tuesday?
In a 2015 national survey by the John Templeton Foundation, 93% of consumers said they were familiar with Black Friday, while only 18% were familiar with Giving Tuesday. Sadly search behavior around these two keywords is even more disproportionate, according to Google Trends data that indicates search volume.
Historic Giving Tuesday Stats
We’ve been predicting since 2017, here is how we’ve done…
| Year | Whole Whale prediction | Actual donation amount | % Increase | Total Participants |
| 2024 | $3.5 Billion | ?? | ?? | ?? |
| 2023 | $3.45 Billion | $3.12 | 1% | 34 Million |
| 2022 | $3.2 Billion | $3.1 Billion | 15% | 37 Million |
| 2021 | $3.0 Billion | $2.7 Billion | 13% | 35 Million |
| 2020 | $605 Million* | $2.4 Billion | 22% | 34.8 Million |
| 2019 | $502 Million* | $1.97 Billion* | 393% | 24.7 Million |
| 2018 | $363 Million | $400 Million | 33% | N/A |
| 2017 | $280 Million | $300 Million | 79% | N/A |
*Whole Whale’s predictions did not include additional institution reporting before 2021. Total giving calculation began including large institutional gifts and not just individual donors after this point.
Giving Tuesday 2023 Stats
- Total amount donated: $3.12 Billion
- Participants: 34 million participated during the 24 time frame.
- Whole Whale predicted $3.45 Billion
- Compared to 2022 this was a .06% increase in giving.
Giving Tuesday 2022 Stats
- Total amount donated: $3.1 Billion
- Participants: 37 million participated during the 24 time frame.
- Whole Whale predicted $3.2 Billion
- Compared to 2021 this was a 15% increase in giving.
- Total US Giving: $499 Billion down 3.4% YoY after adjusting for inflation
- Total charitable giving has fallen only three other times in the last 40 years in current dollars: in 1987, 2008 and 2009.
Giving Tuesday 2021 Stats
- Total Giving: $2.7 Billion
- Whole Whal predicted $3 Billion
- Compared to last year: 37% increase
- Participants: 35 million people participated in GivingTuesday 2021, 9% increase YoY
- Total US Giving: $484 Billion 4% increase
Giving Tuesday 2020 stats
- Total amount donated: $2.4 Billion
- Whole Whale prediction: $605 million – didn’t include additional institution reporting.
- Compared to last year: +$500M or 25% over 2019
- Participants: 34.8 million people participated in GivingTuesday 2020, a 29% increase over 2019
- Total US Giving: $466 Billion
Giving Tuesday 2019 stats
- Total amount donated: $511 million* Later updated in 2020 to $1.97 billion
- Whole Whale prediction: $502 million
- Compared to last year: +$131 million ~ 28%
- Participants: 24.7M
Giving Tuesday 2018 stats
- Total amount donated: $380 million, later updated to $400 million
- Whole Whale prediction: $363 million
- Compared to last year: +$100 million
- Total US donations: $427.7 billion (Giving USA 2017) which represents 2.05% of the 2018 US GDP ($20.89 trillion)
- Mean gift: $105 (Giving Tuesday Data Project)
Giving Tuesday 2017 stats
- Giving Tuesday gifts: 2.5 million
- Total amount donated: >$300 million
- Whole Whale prediction: $280 million
- Compared to last year: $168 million in 2016 meant a growth of 44% YoY
- Total US donations: $410 billion (Giving USA 2017) which represents 2.12% of the 2017 US GDP ($19.39 trillion)
- Average gift: $111 (Giving Tuesday Data Project)
- Social Mentions: 1,010,045 (Giving Tuesday Data Project)
Giving Tuesday 2016 stats
- Giving Tuesday gifts: 1.56 million
- Total amount donated: $168 million
- Compared to last year: $116.7 million in 2015 meant a growth of 44% YoY
- Total US donations: $379.89 billion (according to Giving USA), which represents 2.05% of the 2016 US GDP ($18,561.93 billion)
- Average gift: $107 (Blackbaud)
Giving Tuesday 2015 stats
- Giving Tuesday gifts: 698,961
- Total amount donated:$116.7 million
- Compared to last year: $47.5 million in 2014 meant a growth of 45% YoY)
- Total US donations: $358.4 billion (according to Giving USA), which represents 1.99% of the 2015 US GDP ($17,968.2 billion)
- Average gift: $137 (Blackbaud)
Giving Tuesday 2014 stats
- Giving Tuesday partners: +20,000 (15,000 of which were NGOs)
- Total amount donated: $47.5 million
- Compared to last year: $27 million in 2013 meant a growth of 63% YoY (Case Foundation report)
- Total US donations: $358.38 billion (according to NP Trust), which represents 2.06% of the 2014 US GDP ($17,348.08 billion)
Giving Tuesday 2013 stats
- Giving Tuesday Partners: 8,500 (7,000 of which were NGOs)
- Average raised per partner: $3,857 per NGO
- Total amount donated: $27 million
- Compared to last year: $12 million in 2012 meant a growth of 125% YoY
- Total US donations: $335.17 billion, which represents 1.99% of the 2013 US GDP ($335.17 billion)
- Average gift: $143 (Blackbaud)
Giving Tuesday 2012 stats
- Giving Tuesday Partners: 2,500 NGOs
- Average raised per partner: $4,800
- Total amount donated: $12 million
- Total US donations: $228.93 billion, which represents 1.5% of the 2012 GDP ($15,553.8 billion perUS GDP trend)
- Average gift: $101 (Blackbaud)